Chart of the Month: Carbon emissions have risen in most industries
Carbon emissions are being given increasing attention as we start to see the dramatic impact of severe weather events exacerbated by climate change. In the July 2024 Chart of the Month, we highlight how emissions have fallen at an industry level – though to reach the Government’s net zero 2050 target, more work is required to further reduce emissions.
A target for net zero emissions
New Zealand has a target for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 (other than for biogenic methane) which is enshrined in law and international obligations. Currently, the Ministry for the Environment is consulting on the Government’s proposed second emissions reduction plan for 2025 to 2030, as well as amendments to the first emissions reduction plan for 2020 to 2025. These five-year emissions reduction plans form stepping stones on the country’s path to net zero in 2050. In their consultation, the Ministry for the Environment identifies six key sectors for emissions reduction – transport, energy, construction, waste, agriculture, and forestry.
Total emissions are down, but some industries emissions are up
New Zealand’s total emissions (carbon dioxide equivalents) have fallen by around 5,600 kilotonnes or 7.1% over the 15 years from 2007 to 2022. Chart 1 shows how each of the 19 industries (at Level 1 of the ANZSIC framework) and the household sector have contributed to this fall. The reduction in overall emissions was driven by a nearly 4,500 kilotonne fall in electricity, gas, water and waste services emissions, which more than offset rises in other industries and the household sector. A shift towards lower emission electricity generation is responsible for the reduction in electricity, gas, water and waste services emissions, although we note that this can be volatile year-to-year, with higher emissions occurring in ‘dry years’ for hydroelectricity. Three of the six highest emitting industries recorded increases in emissions – most significantly construction, in which emissions have almost doubled to just over 1,800 kilotonnes. Emissions in transport, postal and warehousing grew 111 kilotonnes, a 3.1% increase. Agriculture, forestry and fishing is the highest emitting industry, though has managed to lower its emissions marginally by 960 kilotonnes, a 2.4% decrease.
Household emissions have grown
We have included the household sector alongside industries in Chart 1, responsible for around 8,600 kilotonnes of emissions in 2022, an increase of 465 kilotonnes from 2007. Our estimates only include direct emissions – households are indirectly responsible for emissions in other industries from which they receive goods and services. For example, the carbon emissions associated with burning gas to create electricity are apportioned to the electricity, gas, water and waste services industry, not the household sector for its use of electricity.
Our approach to modelling emissions
Infometrics emissions modelling is based on Stats NZ emissions estimates and can be used to paint a clear picture of emissions by industry at a region, city, or district level. This information is invaluable for local government or industry bodies looking to firstly understand their emissions profile, and secondly, identify the most important areas to focus on for emissions reduction. This information can be overlayed with our regional economic estimates and forecasts, to identify ‘win-win’ growth opportunities, which can both grow the local economy and help to achieve net zero by 2050.
If you would like to know more about the carbon emissions of your area or industry, then please get in touch.
