Over the weekend we have updated the Infometrics Infrastructure Pipeline Profile (IPP) with the latest data for several infrastructure types. The Profile details expected infrastructure investment out to 2031.

We now expect an average of $18.2b to be invested annually in infrastructure over the period 2025-2031, totalling $127.4b over the period. This seven-year total is $1.4b lower than our prior expectations, or a 1.1% reduction.

This refresh included an update of:

• electricity distribution, based on the latest Asset Management Plans for electricity distribution businesses (EDBs)
• electricity generation, based on the government’s cancelling of the Lake Onslow NZ Battery Project, the long-term energy deal struck by the NZ Aluminium Smelter, and continued growth in solar and renewables projects
• local council spending, based on 2023 Annual Plans
• ports and airports, based on recent company reports on previous performance, as well as updated Statements of Intent from several entities
• non-building consents, based on Stats NZ data.

More investment is now expected in the next few years compared to our prior update, with $2.7b more investment now expected over the 2025-2027 period. The removal of the Lake Onslow project and other changes sees a reduction of $4.2b over the 2028-2031 period compared to our prior update.

The largest change by infrastructure type was a $5b reduction in net electricity generation investment expected over 2025-2031 compared to our prior forecast. Previously, the Lake Onslow NZ Battery Project was costed at $15b+, although only part of that cost was in the forecast period to 2031. We now have 117 electricity generation projects listed in the IPP, with 61 new projects added since our last update. There is no central repository for generation projection options, and Infometrics has used our professional judgement around the inclusion and phasing of projects.

There has also been a $1.5b net increase in intended investment into electricity distribution over the 2025-2031 period compared to our previous update, as lines companies invest more.

Infrastructure investment into ports and airports has increased by $1.2b in net terms, with just over half (57%) going to ports and the remaining portion to airports. Airport investment appears to be being deferred later into the forecast period.

Roading figures have been slightly updated for new data from the latest council Annual Plans for 2024.

Overall, the removal of the Lake Onslow project has seen a reduction of nearly $6.2b in investment expected in Otago over the 2025-2031 period. Northland has seen the largest net gain in investment intentions, with a $1.5b increase over the period, driven by more electricity generation projects. Hawke’s Bay, Auckland, and Bay of Plenty also saw net increases of more than $400m over the period.

We are currently awaiting the finalisation of local council Long Term Plans for 2024-2034. However, several councils are also undertaking an Enhanced Annual Plan process, so not all areas will have a full update of investment intentions over the next decade. We will be able to better determine how we will manage the mix of projections when we have access to all the data.

We are also awaiting the final Government Policy Statement on Land Transport and the National Land Transport Programme 2024-27, which are expected out later this year.

You can view the updated infrastructure data in the Infrastructure Pipeline Profile via the Infometrics Portal.

If you have any questions or would like to discuss this update, please contact Gareth Kiernan.