Economic figures aren’t always the most interesting or entertaining, but they are important to monitor how broader trends evolve and what they mean for different groups. But sometimes, various datasets can be put to more fun use. For our last Chart of the Month for 2024, we look into Christmas costs, including what Christmas dinner might cost you, and how prices have changed from last year for some potential presents that are in line to be put under the tree.

For the last two years, we have undertaken the important economic analysis of how much Christmas dinner might cost, first for RNZ in 2022 and then again for our Chart of the Month in December 2023.

Looking at our menu again in 2024, there have been further developments of food prices – and not always towards higher prices.

We estimate that in 2024, our BBQ meal option would cost around $319 for ten people (excluding drinks and trimmings), up 2.3% on 2023 (+$7.19). The main meal itself would cost $251, an increase on 2023, driven by the 8.5% in sirloin steak costs compared to 2023 as beef prices pushed higher this year due to lower global supply. Lamb chops are marginally cheaper (-0.7%pa), but salad costs are up 2.3%. Thankfully, tomato sauce prices have simmered down, falling 11%pa (but still sitting 22% above 2019 levels).

Our roast meal option would cost around $245 for ten people, down 2.4% from 2023 (savings of $6.15 in total). The main meal would cost $178, with the meats all costing more – with roast lamb up 8.6%pa, roast pork up 6.3%pa, and ham up 3.1%pa. But the roast veggies are more affordable, now that there’s better supply, with kumara down 53%, pumpkin down 42%, and potato prices down 31%pa.

The cost to make a pavlova has fallen 14% over the last year, with eggs down 10%, sugar down 8%, and fruits down 23-30% (we prefer strawberries or kiwifruit, in that order). But the cream on top has increased 10%pa.

These higher dairy costs have made figgy pudding costs rise 10% (plus whatever money you try to hide inside). Butter prices are 49% higher than a year ago, milk prices are up 10%, and sultanas are up 18%pa!

We also received questions about Christmas cake (seems like we weren’t the only ones – a hat tip to the Westpac Economics team here!) We found that a fairly basic Christmas cake (the author already isn’t a fan of this cake, so he’s not fussy about the ingredients) would cost around $16.90, up 14% from a year ago, again driven by higher butter and dried fruit costs.

Kiwis are still being cautious with money, but there’s a little more joy to the world this year as interest rates moderate. Worldline spending data for the first two weeks of December 2024 shows a 1.2%pa increase from the same period last year, a small but notable rise. We might be going for present volume rather than value this year, with the average spending transaction value down 1.1%pa.

Our own (highly unscientific) poll on Instagram suggested that 50% of those answering the poll would spend $51-$100 on a gift, with a further 39% would spend $26-$50 on a gift for a friend. Around 7% were looking to splash out and spend more than $100 on a gift, and 4% were spending a conservative $0-$25 per person.

The Worldline data also suggests a shift in present types, with a 2.9% increase in clothes spending and a 14% rise in sporting equipment spending compared to last year. Falling out of favour are books (down 3.6%pa) and home decorations (down 4.9%).

Cost increases compared to last year might also help refine any last-minute present shopping. Infometrics analysis of September quarter inflation data shows a variety of price changes over the last year. Of the various categories we consider as having present-potential, jewellery had the largest increase, up 8.4% from a year ago. Newspapers and magazines were more expensive too, up 4.5%pa.

Confectionary, nuts, and snacks were up 4.0%pa, as chocolate prices have risen – although a bottle of olive oil under the tree would show some serious spending commitment to your giftee, given that item has increased 45% in the last year. Toy prices in general are up 1.9% from a year ago.

There are some present ideas that are cheaper than a year ago, with large household appliances down 5.6% (maybe wrapping a household replacement into a gift to let the present do double duty?). Book prices are down as well, although the spending trends outlined above seem to show a little less interest in 2024. Tools are cheaper too, if you’re looking to encourage someone into some DIY over summer, and kids clothing and footwear are slightly cheaper too.

No matter how much you’re spending on gifts, what you’re cooking for dinner, or where you are in New Zealand or across the world, the Infometrics team wishes you all the safe and relaxing summer. We’ll be back in 2025 with more economic analysis, understandable insights, and useable information.