The New Zealand economy’s recovery from the stagnation of the last two years will remain patchy until mid-2025, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Although the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cuts since August have finally provided some light at the end of the tunnel for Kiwis, continued increases in the unemployment rate will mean households remain cautious in their spending decisions over the next nine months. The high proportion of mortgage lending on fixed rates also means that the easing in monetary conditions will not have an immediate effect on household budgets. Read

Infometrics welcomes Matthew Allman into our economist team. Matthew joined us in April this year and is already an integral part of the forecasting team. This month we chat with Matthew about what he’s been involved with since he joined Infometrics. Read

The New Zealand economy faces continued difficult conditions throughout the next 12 months according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts, with increased caution from businesses around investment and hiring in response to weakening demand. Reduced job and income security is becoming a major drag on cons... Read

Economic pressures are getting real for people this year, as higher mortgage rates continue to suck more money out of household budgets, and a swathe of recent job losses undermine income security. Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts show annual GDP and private consumption spending growth briefly... Read

There are currently a lot of moving parts to New Zealand’s economic outlook, as we consider prospects throughout 2024 and into 2025. The challenges to forecasting are nowhere near as pronounced as they were during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the expectations and outcomes were, literally, off the charts. Instead, there are conflicting pressures and signals making it difficult to know which influence will ultimately prevail – conditions that are typical when the economy is at a turning point. Read

New Zealand’s economic prospects are brightening, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. GDP growth is predicted to average 2.0%pa during 2024 and 2025, which represents a substantial upward revision from the 1.2%pa growth that was being forecast by Infometrics in October last year. This more positive outlook is underpinned by continued high net migration that is set to take longer to retreat from its current record level. Improving business confidence will also lead to more positive outcomes for business investment spending. Read

The New Zealand economy is on track for the much sought-after “soft landing”, according to Infometrics’ latest forecasts. Although economic activity is set to remain patchy in coming quarters, year-end growth is predicted to bottom out at 0.9% during 2024, which is an upward revision of more than a percentage point from the trough that had been expected earlier this year. Read

For almost forty years, Infometrics has provided predictions across a range of building indicators to both government and private business clients. With activity across the broader economy under pressure, and the construction industry at a turning point, the need for reliable estimates of both the duration and magnitude of the emerging downturn is especially critical. Read

The full fuel excise duty returned on 1 July 2023, which provisionally added 28.5c/L to the domestic price of regular petrol. However, the price of regular petrol was still 53c/L lower than this time last year, as the substantial decline in fuel prices since July 2022 means prices are sharply down even though the fuel tax is no longer discounted. Read

Inflationary pressures are finally moderating throughout the New Zealand economy, according to Infometrics’ latest economic forecasts, after two years of costs and prices running out of control. Recent data has shown demand across the economy moderating as higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures have squeezed household spending. With international inflation also abating, the Reserve Bank is now on track to get inflation back to the top of its 1-3%pa target bank by the end of 2024. Read