Stats NZ released their latest subnational population estimates on the 25th of October, providing us with an annual glimpse into how New Zealand’s population is growing around the country. In this article, we highlight the overall trends of the 2024 estimates, pull out interesting results from specific cities or districts, and include a table with the high-level results for all areas. Our Regional Economic Profile has also been updated with the figures for your local area.

Stats NZ’s annual population estimates always come with revisions, reflecting newer data coming in about the movement of people within New Zealand. Stats NZ produces the annual population estimates using administrative data, including births, deaths, and notifications of internal migration such as a taxpayer updating their address with IRD. However, notifying IRD isn’t always top-of-mind when moving house, so these notifications can come through late and contribute to revisions to internal migration estimates. International migration is estimated too, with Stats NZ modelling whether people arriving in New Zealand are permanent migrants or just visitors. If Stats NZ thinks someone is a visitor, but after a period of time they haven’t left the country, then they will be reclassified as a migrant and added to the population tally, further contributing to revisions. The 2024 population estimates include revisions to 2023 estimates, so it is important to download a full history of the data, and not just compare to previously published historical figures.

Nationally, the June 2023 population was revised up by 0.4%, reflecting revisions to international net migration. Regional revisions reflect a combination of revisions to international net migration, as well as internal migration. The 2023 estimates for the Bay of Plenty were revised down by 1.3%, the West Coast up by 4.4%, and Canterbury up by 2.5%. In Canterbury, Stats NZ estimates that there are 16,800 more residents in 2023 than it previously thought.

It’s important to note that the 2024 subnational population estimates do not yet fully incorporate the 2023 Census. Further revisions will follow in early 2025, when Stats NZ fully incorporates 2023 Census data, alongside the post enumeration survey, into the subnational population estimates. Nonetheless, we still recommend using the 2024 subnational population estimates to understand your population level and growth, because the Census under counts the population.

New Zealand experienced record high international net migration of 108,400 in the year to June 2023, so it was almost inevitable that net migration – and population growth – would be slower in 2024. Chart 1 shows that over the past year, international arrivals fell by 9,500, having risen by another 29,000 between June 2023 and their peak in October last year). Since June last year, international departures have risen by 29,300, bringing net migration down to 69,600 in the year to June 2024.

International departures have risen as some recent immigrants have decided to return home, and New Zealanders have headed overseas in search of greener pastures, in record numbers.

Chart 2 shows that the slowdown in net migration has had the most pronounced effect on major urban areas (such as Auckland) and rural areas. Population growth in major urban areas accelerated to 3.1% on average in 2023, before dropping away to 2.1% in 2024. Growth in rural areas accelerated to 2.0% in 2023, dropping away to 1.0% in 2024. Major urban and rural areas are highly reliant on international net migration, but for different reasons. Major urban areas are a drawcard for international migrants, and often serve as a staging post for new migrants before they move into smaller urban areas. Rural areas generally have an older population, and typically draw in migrants to fill workforce gaps left by an ageing workforce, as well as to meet the needs of growing sectors such as tourism.

Despite the sharp drop-off in major urban area growth, growth in large urban areas (such as Whangārei) was unchanged between 2023 and 2024, growing at 1.4% on average in both years. Growth in small to medium urban areas (such as Cambridge) slowed down from 2.2% to 1.8%; a far lesser fall than major urban areas. Major urban and rural areas are most reliant on international migration, and were therefore most starved of growth in 2021 and 2022, while New Zealand’s borders were closed. The sharp fall-off in growth for these areas between 2023 and 2024 reflects a transition towards normality. International net migration is forecast to fall further in the coming two years, so a further slowdown for population growth can be expected into 2025 and 2026.

The Top 10 fastest growing areas in 2024 are largely the usual suspects, with all of the Top 10 in 2024 having been within the Top 20 in 2023. Selwyn District jumped from second place to first place, despite recording its slowest rate of growth since 2012, a still impressive 4.0% (see Table 1). Queenstown-Lakes was knocked back from first to sixth place, with a sharp slowdown from 7.8% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024. Western Bay of Plenty District jumped from 17th place to third, with growth accelerating from 2.4% to 3.3%, while neighbouring Tauranga City slowed down from 2.4% to 1.6%.

Waimate District managed its fastest growth on record at 2.8%, a significant increment above its previous record of 1.5% in 2015. Waimate also faced a 2.6% revision to its 2023 population estimate, so its 2024 population is 5.4% higher than the old 2023 estimate.

Auckland’s population declined while New Zealand’s borders were closed for the pandemic, and bounced back strongly when the borders reopened to grow by 2.8%pa in 2023. Auckland’s growth of 2.5%pa in 2024 is still relatively high, and represents an additional 44,600 people.

New Zealand’s two slowest growing territorial authorities in 2024 grew by just 0.2%pa – Nelson City and Wellington City. Nelson’s growth was well behind its neighbour Tasman with 1.1%pa (itself a fairly slow growth rate by Tasman standards). Wellington City’s weak growth reflects a difficult time for the city given the public sector job cuts affecting the capital. Wellington’s slowdown was driven by deteriorating net migration, from a 1,900 gain in 2023 to a 440 decline in 2024.

International net migration is still relatively high, and has continued to mask natural decline from an aging population in many areas. In Thames-Coromandel District, Kāpiti Coast, Nelson City, Timaru District and Dunedin City, deaths outnumbered births by over 100 people in 2024. Thames-Coromandel remains the oldest territorial authority, with a median age of 55.0 years in 2024.

Hamilton City remains our youngest territorial authority, with a median age of 33.4 years in 2024, recording 1,400 more births than deaths. Hamilton’s 2024 growth of 3.1% was driven by a combination of strong migration gain and strong natural increase. Even without any net migration, Hamilton’s population would have still grown by 0.8% due to natural increase alone.

Despite the news last week, Queenstown-Lakes doesn’t qualify to become a city. Becoming a city requires a population over 50,000 that is predominantly urban, a distinct entity and a major centre of activity. Queenstown-Lakes District has a population of 52,400 in 2024, however, this is split across Queenstown, Wanaka and smaller communities. The Queenstown urban area recorded a population of 27,700.

Despite the population growth slowdown from 2023 to 2024, population growth remains relatively strong, underpinned by an international net migration gain that is still large. We expect net migration will fall to a more normal level of around 30,000 in 2025, which will result in a further slowdown in population growth, making natural declines more apparent.