New Zealanders’ knowledge of Asia is at an all-time high. In Asia New Zealand Foundation's annual New Zealanders' Perceptions of Asia 2024 survey, 59% percent of respondents to the 2024 survey reported knowing ‘at least a fair amount’ about Asia, up from just 33% ten years ago.

This result is unsurprising. New Zealanders are increasingly exposed to Asian culture through food, clothing, entertainment (think anime, K-Pop, gaming and critically acclaimed feature films such as Godzilla Minus One and TV such as Shōgun), and to Asian products such as cars and audio/visual technology. We are also increasingly exposed to Asia through trade, travel, and the rising number of Asian people who live and work in New Zealand. Here we look at the numbers behind the rising Asian population and workforce in New Zealand.

From a population of just over 325,000 in 2003, the population identifying with Asian ethnicity in New Zealand grew by an annual average of 5.1% over the next 20 years to reach just over 873,000 in 2023. This growth rate compares with average growth of 1.5%pa across the whole population, 2.7%pa for Pacific Peoples, 2.0% for Māori, and just 0.7% for Europeans over the same period. As a result, the Asian population grew from 7.5% of the total New Zealand population in 2003 to 15% in 2023 (Chart 1).

Over the next 20 years, the Asian population is projected to grow more slowly than it did in the past 20 years, but still faster than any other major population group. Asian population growth is projected to average 2.8%pa between 2023 and 2043 compared with 1.2% across the total population, 1.9%pa for Pacific Peoples, 1.8% for Māori and 0.5% for Europeans. By 2043, Asians are projected to make up 20% of the New Zealand population. That is bigger than the projected Māori population.

The Asian population is concentrated in Auckland. Some 60% of all Asians living in New Zealand lived in Auckland in 2023. But every region has seen an increase in its Asian population over the past 20 years (Chart 2).

In Waikato, Wellington and Canterbury, Asians made up 10% or more of the population in 2023. In Auckland they made up over one-quarter of the total population. In Southland Region, the Asian population grew by an annual average 10%pa between 2003 and 2023, in Marlborough by 8.0%pa, and in West Coast, Nelson, Tasman and Bay of plenty by more than 7.0%pa.

Over the next 20 years, the Asian population is projected to grow further across every New Zealand region, reaching 10% or more of the total population in Bay of Plenty, Manawatū-Whanganui, Nelson, Otago and Southland, and more than one-third of the total population in Auckland by 2043.

In the Perceptions of Asia 2024 report, 82% of respondents said China was the Asian country with the most influence over New Zealand currently, 7% said Japan and 3% said India. This balance is shifting. In the same survey, 73% of respondents thought China would have the most influence over the next 10-20 years and 13% thought India. China is the largest destination for New Zealand’s exports. India is rising in prominence due to trade the popularity of New Zealand to its international students.

As a result of growth in the Asian population in New Zealand, China, India, as well as several other Asian countries now have a significant diaspora over here. In fact, the Asian population in New Zealand is as diverse as the countries that make up the Asian continent. Based on Stats NZ’s Administrative Population Census, in 2022, some 35% of Asians in New Zealand identified as Indian, 32% as Chinese, 9% as Filipino and 4% as Korean. Smaller populations identified as Sri Lankan, Japanese, Vietnamese and Cambodian. Each Asian country has a unique culture which adds its own flavour to New Zealand’s growing and deepening multi-culturalism.

In a recent article about fertility rates we observed that, as of 2018, the fertility rate for Asians in New Zealand of 1.40 was well below the replacement rate of 2.1. The fertility rate is the average number of children that a woman of childbearing age (15-44 years) can expect to have through her reproductive years. The replacement rate is the number of children required to maintain a stable population. That’s 2.0 to replace the parents, and 0.1 to offset mortality before childbearing age.

A fertility rate below the replacement rate means that the Asian population in New Zealand has only been growing (and will continue to grow) because of net inward migration rather than natural increase through births. Since 2011, arrivals of Asian migrants to New Zealand have been influenced by New Zealand’s immigration policy, economic conditions in New Zealand, global economic trends and the global pandemic (Chart 3).

Following the Global Financial Crisis, arrivals of Asian migrants totalled around 35,000pa until 2014 when they started to increase. In 2015/16 arrivals reached over 58,000pa before falling back to a just under 55,000pa as immigration policy was tightened. Changes to immigration policy in 2016 included requiring employers wishing to hire a migrant for a lower-skilled role to engage with Work and Income to ensure no New Zealander was available and increasing the number of points required for residence under the Skilled Migrant Category.

Arrivals stayed at around 55,000 until a brief surge just before the closure of the New Zealand border in 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. The opening of the border in mid-2022 has prompted an unprecedented wave of Asian migrant arrivals as New Zealand employers sought to fill deep skill shortages that had persisted throughout the pandemic and migrants’ pent-up demand for a change of country was released. Arrivals surged over 147,000pa at the end of 2023 before falling back to almost 131,000pa by mid-2024. Over the same time period from 2010 to 2024, departures of Asian migrants remained relatively constant at around 14,000-25,000pa (outside of the volatility caused by the pandemic).

The fast-growing Asian population has fuelled a fast-growing Asian workforce. Chart 4 shows that almost every year since the Global Financial Crisis, growth in the employment of Asians has easily outpaced total employment growth. From 2010 to 2023, Asian employment growth averaged 6.0%pa compared with 1.9%pa for total employment.

Strong employment growth is also reflected in the Asian unemployment rate which has remained close to the national average unemployment rate since 2014.

Infometrics expects Asian employment growth over the next five years to be slower than it has been previously, due to weaker economic conditions in New Zealand. But Asian employment growth will continue to outpace total employment growth. From 2023 to 2029, Asian employment growth is forecast to average 4.7%pa compared with 1.4%pa for total employment.

In terms of the industry profile, the Asian workforce is similar in many ways to the workforce as a whole. But the Asian workforce does have some unique characteristics such as relatively large proportions employed in accommodation and food services, healthcare, and retail (Chart 5).

Accommodation and food services attracts migrant workers. According to Migrant Employment Data from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, 23% of people employed in accommodation and food services in 2023 were either recent residents or work visa holders (of all nationalities). It’s interesting that other industries that have high proportions of migrant workers such as agriculture, and administrative and support services don’t attract a disproportionate number of Asian workers (Chart 5).

The high proportion of Asian workers in the health workforce reflects New Zealand’s high proportion of internationally qualified doctors and nurses compared with other OECD countries.

The average earnings of Asians working in New Zealand tend to sit just below the average for all workers. In 2023, we estimate that Asian average earnings were just under $70,500 compared with just over $74,500 across the whole workforce. Earnings across different industries and across jobs within industries do vary. But the high proportion of Asians working in accommodation and food services, where wages tend to be lower than average, is a key reason for Asians having lower than average earnings overall.

New Zealand is in a somewhat unique position in that we have close historical ties with the UK, but geographically we are an Asia-Pacific nation. According to the Perceptions of Asia 2024 survey, 75% of New Zealanders think that the Asian region is either very important or import to New Zealand’s future. They are correct. Our ties with Asia are only going to grow, deepen, and become more complex.

There will be challenges along the way. Domestic challenges include New Zealand’s social cohesion, how our major institutions such as schools adapt to our changing population, and how we see ourselves as a nation –– such as when the Asian population surpasses the Māori population in size. Internationally, the challenges have the potential to disrupt our society and economy if geopolitical tensions between the US and China require New Zealand (and other nations) to increasingly choose a side.

But let’s not lose sight of the many benefits that a growing and prospering Asian population brings to New Zealand’s people, businesses and workers in terms of Asian culture, trade, tourism, innovation, and, of course, the skills and knowledge of its people.