The challenges of structural ageing and population decline are set to shine through again with subnational population estimates due next month. This article explores previous periods of population decline – looking at how effective migration is at holding back decline, how we should plan for decline, and what has happened to areas which have experienced population decline in our history. Read

Weaker economic activity and falling employment are hitting regional economies, with the economic crunch deepening across the country, according to Infometrics’ latest monitoring of regional economies. Read

The New Zealand energy market has been in the spotlight recently, as a shortfall of energy, from both gas and electricity, has sent energy prices soaring. It’s become such an issue that production has started to be curtailed for some operators, either because they cannot procure energy supplies, or it has become economically unviable to pay such high prices. Read

Last week Stats NZ released the first tranche of data from the 2023 Census, an exciting milestone for anyone with a thirst for regional or socioeconomic data. With the prior Census held in 2018, this represents the first Census data since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this article, we dive into the first tranche of data, explain why the good stuff is yet to come, and raise a note of caution for population comparisons with the first tranche of data. Read

A deteriorating economic climate continues to make life difficult for regional economies, according to Infometrics’ latest monitoring of regional economies. The March 2024 Infometrics Quarterly Economic Monitor suggests that economic activity in the first three months of 2024 was 0.3%pa higher than ... Read

Recessionary pressures have led to a surge in youth unemployment nationally. Last week’s StatsNZ labour market statistics showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) showed total unemployment up by 33,700 people, 31% higher than a year ago. More than half of t... Read

Updated data from Stats NZ shows that completion numbers for new dwellings have largely tracked as we had estimated over the last two years, pushing to a record high of 43,160 at the end of 2023. Completion numbers over the last six months have been a bit higher than we anticipated, which reflects t... Read

Principal Economist, Brad Olsen, examines rising local government costs. With expectations that rates rises in 2024 will be the largest since local council reforms in 1989... Read

This year seems to be shaping up as an annus horribilis for employment, as we receive seemingly hour-by-hour updates on job losses. In this article, we start by looking at just how bad our previous bad years for employment were, see how significant this year’s announced job losses are at a macro scale, and how these losses play out for different industries. Finally, we touch on our expectations for employment growth and the role of net migration as a relief valve. Read

The annual total of new dwelling consents slipped to 36,453 in January 2024, down 29% from its May 2022 peak. The sharp drop in consents over the last two years probably overstates the downturn in residential construction activity, just as the strong and persistent growth... Read