We are introducing a new indicator for first home buyer activity – First Home Loans. This article explores first home buyer activity in the housing market from a few different angles and introduces our new measure. Read

Housing affordability is an important issue affecting the wellbeing of households. Recently, we dove deeper on housing affordability for two Waikato Region clients. This article explores several new ways of exploring local housing affordability to inform decision making. Read

Despite being a relatively small country internationally, New Zealand is geographically diverse enough that there is never a single economic "story". One example of this can be seen if we divide the country up into "Metro", "Provincial" and "Rural" areas and examine rental affordability. Read

The government has relaxed tax rules for property investors, and will do so again in April next year, and it has also reduced the bright-line test. But since March, seasonally adjusted house sales volumes have slipped to a 15-month low. Our analysis looks at whether the government’s changes are like... Read

New analysis by leading New Zealand economic consultancy Infometrics has found that the short-term rental accommodation (STRA) sector has a limited effect on rental prices and no significant effect on house prices across New Zealand’s major urban areas, with population and interest rates having the greatest influence on rents and house prices. Read

Estimating underlying demand for housing is an inexact science, because people’s preferences about the number of people per household, or the proportion of vacant dwellings, can never be observed. At a nationwide level, our longstanding model of underlying demand for new housing is premised on the t... Read

The housing market has been one of the key indicators of increasing stress for households over the last few months. After a mild but short-lived rally during early and mid-2023, buyer demand has softened again, as mortgage rates remain high and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank get pushed further into the future. Read

The stock of homes available for purchase on realestate.co.nz increased in February to its highest level since 2015, as more people listed their properties for sale. In the last five years, monthly new listing numbers onto the market have only been higher than February’s total... Read

At its most basic, our modelling and forecasting of residential consent numbers has two key influences: interest rates and population growth. Within the components of population growth, net migration is the biggest swing variable, while births and deaths tend to change much more slowly. However, ove... Read

Inflation is moderating, which is encouraging news after the highest rise in prices in three decades after the COVID-19 pandemic and associated supply chain issues, emergency stimulus, and high demand. Although the national inflation rate is regularly analysed and discussed, regional price changes a... Read